Climate Change

Thursday, August 10, 2006

IN SEARCH OF BLACK GOLD

We are a generation that feeds, lives and depend on fossils fuels. We are who we are because of fossil fuels, for instance the economy of the 20th century was built upon oil. For some oil brought exceptional wealth and power (Middle East especially Saudi Arabia and in particular George W. Bush) while for others it meant oppression, wars and colonialism (Nigeria). Everything that surrounds us somehow needs fossil fuel to operate.

As we have enter the 21st century nothing has changed apart from that our addiction on oil now threatens the whole globe, rich and poor. According http://www.nonewoil.org/ as oil supplies fall behind the demand the world will face more and more conflicts. Western countries especially the US and the UK are now scrambling to secure and to get their hands on the last reserves that’s left. Why do you think USA occupies Iraq and have such strong relations with Saudi Arabia and Israel? Israel is not oil exporter but this country provides a foot hole for the rest of the Arab peninsula. The Gulf War was fought because of oil thus western countries will do anything to have part of the reserve oil.
All oil regions have life cycles and this can be divided in three phases:
· Phase of continual production (Pre-peak)
· Second phase is stagnant (peak or plateau)
· Continual declining production (decline)
All or most of the western countries are demonstrating that their own oil supply is in the last phase where there is a continual declining in their production. Alaska and Texas the major oil suppliers within the USA have reach the maximum/peak 10 and 30 years ago respectively. Texas produce no more than it did in 1930. It is only in the Gulf of Mexico that production can and might be increase further on all oil/gas field in the USA are declining at an alarming rate. The production of UK based oil peak in 1999 and in 2010 it is expected to be on reserves (Zittel and Schindler 2003).
The Mecca of future oil production for global purposes is the Middle East region. The perception of many people is that this oil rich region will supply the globe for many decades to come, but already some of the larger oil fields in Saudi Arabia will shortly if not already have reached their maximum production. Thus Saudi Arabia oil production cannot be increased any more. The countries on the Arab Peninsula that can potential increase their production and who are far for their maximum is Iraq, Abu Dhabi and Kuwait (Zittel and Schindler 2003).
After the major oil exporters have reached their maximum and entering the last phase of the oil cycle, they will look for other regions and guess where they will inflict conflict and pain? You have guessed right, the 3rd world nations! Nigeria are already under British rule (BP) and currently there seems to ethnic and religious conflict among the nations due to BP. This company has already been kicked out Bolivia and Costa Rica. The president of Venezuela and Bush has already had some words to say to each other. Venezuela have the largest reserves outside the Middle East and are already a target. Other targets include Angola, Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Libya, Sudan, Afghanistan and many more (http://www.nonewoil.org/).
Some of these countries have been in the news lately with conflict if not with the USA than with their own people. So do be surprise if the USA starts a war like the one on South African soil with the British for our gold back in the days.

Reference:

Nonewoil contributors. Beyond oil: the oil curse and solutions for an oil-free future; 2006 October [ Cited 2006 Aug 10]. Available from http://www.nonewoil.org

Zittel W & Scindler J. International Summer School: On the Politics and Economics and Renewable Energy; 2003 July 15th, [cited 2006 Aug 10]. Available from http://www.lbst.de/


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