Climate Change

Monday, August 14, 2006

MOVIE REVIEW: IF OIL RUNS OUT

After watching this movie, it confirms the last piece that I wrote about searching for black gold and quite strange I only watched the movie after I wrote “In search of Black Gold”. In a speech of George W. Bush, he publicly admitted that Americans are addicted to oil and that the reserves are in unstable parts of the world. The two oil analysts in the movie, Matt Simmons and Paul Domjan are given the scenario about how people will cope with lower fuel supply and higher prices of almost everything in 2016. Throughout the movie one gets the feeling that the average person on the street thinks that it is their God giving right to fill up their tanks with oil. The scenario that is created is the increased fuel price of about R14 per litre in January of 2016 (current exchange rate) till it reaches R72 per litre by August 2016.

According Simmons and Domjan, we discover fewer and fewer major oil fields each year with 16 major oil fields in 2000, 9 in 2001 and only 1 in 2005. This put enormous pressure not only the big economies but also on developing countries. These developing countries and in particular Zimbabwe, where the inflation rate is just below 1000%, experience already and are in an oil crisis, don’t even to talk about 2016. These two analysts explain the addiction of the West on oil, with studies estimating that each American burns about 25 barrels of oil each year, each Briton 11 barrels and one Chinese about 2 barrels. With China and India that contribute almost 30% to the global population and their economies on the rise, one would suspect that their demand for oil will be up in 2016 and competing with the likes of America and the U.K.
Thus, nations around the world will explore their own land to look for oil and some nations will become selfish as they will use their resources for own purposes. The last piece American soil that is thought to have large quantities of oil to fuel them for decades is located with in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). This remote place in Alaska will be the battlefield for a classic case where environmental preservation and oil supply will lock horns. If the government of that time will allow companies to drill there, they will admit U.S addiction to lower foreign oil by any means what so ever. Again the environment will come second best after the hunger for fossil fuel as it has done for almost two hundred years.

People around the globe and in particular in the West are beginning to accept the fact that their basic lives in terms of their ability to get around and their ability to heat their home, the fact that they have a job depend on stable geopolitics with the major oil producers. These are the words of one of the oil analysts in the movie: It is important to think today about what we can do to move away from the oil age, to build a more environmentally sustainable and a more secure economy that relies on fuel and broader variety of fuels that don’t bring with them all the political, environmental problems that oil does.


PLAGIARISM DECLARATION
1.I know that plagiarism is wrong. Plagiarism is to use another’s work and to pretend that it is one’s own.
2. I have used the CSE/CBE convention for citation and referencing. Each significant contribution to, and quotation in this project from the work, or works, of other people has been attributed, and has been cited and referenced.
3. This assignment is my own work.
4. I have not allowed, and will not allow anyone to copy my work with the intention of passing it off as his or her own work.

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